The Best Market Research
   
 

That's me, Reinhard

I was born in Munich, but now I live most of the time in Manila, Philippines. For 20 years now I invest in Futures, Stocks and Junk-Bonds. For 8 Years I write for a big German Stock-Magazine.
...Until now I survived all crashes, ups and downs - strict market-research made it possible...

And now my first advice ONLINE! Yes, it's my first time to put up a Home-Page... ...That's why it looks quite simple... ...Sorry for that, but for sure the content is very useful!




MARKET-RISK NOW: Possible decrease of -20% to -30%!

 
Here you can see an original chart from "Wall Street Journal", October 16. 1987.
Stocks and Bonds are compared, for getting clues, predicting the stockmarket.
The chart shows the old rule: Interest-rates leading the Stock-Market. Higher Bonds pushing the stock-market Upwards, lower Bonds downwards. ...The two lines should be always very closely - but as human beings are involved in market-trading, it always drifting apart, sometimes more, sometimes less.

In 1987 it got more, on October too much... The difference became bigger and bigger - and finaly really unhealthy. And - as we all know - the market reacted... Went back where it belongs - and it belongs to the level of interest-rates...

It was a cruel, painful disaster. Only 3 days after the report in the Journal, (Real good timing, guys!!!), the market crashed - the loss was all in all around 30%...
 
...This chart... ...Doesn't it look familiar? No, it's not a coloured Chart from 1987... It's Worse... ...It's the today Situation... ...well, well, well... ...Looks a little terrible, doesn't it?

Interest-rates increasing (right scale, invers), Stocks made all time highs... ...like 1987... ...Brrrr... ...What's next???

THE MARKET STARTED ALREADY TO REACT,
...and it will react much more!

The gap between the "fundamental level" shown by interest rates and the actual level is clearly still to big! The real level for the S+P-Index is around 1,100 Points - a market-risk of around 20%!
...But if the market really reacting that much, the reaction can go further... ...1,000 in S+P could be tested... 30% losses... ...Oh, boy... Welcome to the "nightmare on Wallstreet..."

..So, its not a bad idea to hedge now your portfolio - or to sell options, getting the premium... ...or going short in S+P-Futures, the most consequent and the most exciting practice...

More on Page 2, klick the link below
 
Favourite links
 

Best Market Research Part 2
More about CPI and Interst-Rates


Email me at:
[email protected]

This page has been visited times.